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Econometric analysis of demographic aspects of economic development
LE, Václav Quang
The thesis focuses on econometric analysis of demographic aspects of economic development. The subject of the analysis is the sustainability of the pension system of the Czech Republic, which is examined from two perspectives, from the point of view of pension revenues and expenditures on pension benefits. The analysis is carried out using the multiple linear regression technique. Three models are presented for each of the variables examined. The dataset is time series in nature, has quarterly seasonality and the period under study is the time interval 2000-2022 Q1. According to the revenue models, revenue is positively correlated with GDP, wages and salaries, employers' social contributions, consumer price index (CPI) and negatively correlated with the number of employed and unemployed. Expenditures, on the other hand, are positively correlated with the number of pensions, CPI, average wages and past expenditures. The models presented were also evaluated for their forecast accuracy for 2018-2019 when there was no crisis and for 2020-2022 Q1 when there was a crisis. The models were able to capture the dynamics of the variables in the non-crisis period, but were not as accurate in the crisis period, with the expenditure models performing better in comparison. Based on cross-validation, the corrected Akaike information criterion and the Schwarz Bayesian information criterion, model 2 was selected for each variable to predict for Q2-Q4 2022. According to the revenue model, revenue should trend sideways/stagnate, while according to the expenditure model, expenditure should grow. Also, predicted expenditures are exceeding predicted revenues.
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Economic cycle and municipal budgets
MACHOVÁ, Lenka
The main aim of this diploma thesis named Economic Cycle and Municipal Budgets is to assess the impact of the economic cycle on the revenue and expenditure part of municipal budgets in the Czech Republic. The practical part is divided into two sections. The first section shows the development of the economic cycle in the Czech Republic and the development of revenues and expenditures of Czech municipalities in the years 2006 to 2019. The second section is an econometric analysis of the behavior of Czech municipal budgets depending on the economic cycle. Data for the second section of the practical part are obtained from publicly available databases such as ARIS, ÚFIS, AMECO database and MONITOR of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic. In total 6 239 municipalities of the Czech Republic were analysed for the reporting period 2010 to 2019. A total of 12 explained variables were determined, namely: tax revenues, personal income tax, corporate income tax, value added tax, real estate tax, non-tax revenues, capital revenues, received transfers, received non-investment transfers, received investment transfers, current expenditures and capital expenditures. The dependence between the explained variable and the explanatory variable is examined using the regression analysis of the panel data. The economic cycle was found to affect all of the selected explanatory variables. The main hypothesis of the diploma thesis is not rejected. The economic cycle affects the revenue and expenditure part of the municipal budgets in the Czech Republic.
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The Use of Facebook by the Czech Municipalities
Turková, Kateřina ; Kouřilová, Jana (advisor) ; Říhová, Gabriela (referee)
This diploma thesis discusses the evaluation of the extent and way of using the social network called Facebook by the municipalities of the Central Bohemia Region, participating in the local Agenda 21. The subjects of the research are official Facebook pages of the municipalities on the mentioned social network. Emphasis is placed on revealing the relationships between the characteristics of individual municipalities and their activity, or the way of using Facebook. The theoretical part of the thesis provides definitions of the basic terms and the theoretical background. The research questions are formulated in the Methodology chapter. They are answered in the research section of this thesis by using combination of research methods. Official Facebook pages were created by four municipalities (until the 1 January 2016) from total number of twelve municipalities and small municipalities, participating in the local Agenda 21 in the Central Bohemian Region. According to the results of the econometric analysis, the higher the unemployment rate in these municipalities, the more likely it is that the municipality has an official Facebook page.
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Econometric analysis of unemployment in Czech republic
Melnyk, Anastasiia ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Sokol, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the issue of unemployment in general, and in the practical part concretely - unemployment rate in the Czech Republic and Austria. Firstly, the thesis examines the theory of general concepts for getting acquainted with unemployment in an open economy, then explains different types of unemployment and the factors that cause them. Separately describes Okun's law and introduces the regression equation, which will be verified later on empirical data. Next, it will introduce to us selected econometric methods of unemployment analysis, primarily focusing on the problems of time series, with which it will work in the practical part. Particularly, it will describe general terms in econometrics, techniques of estimation of parameters for regression equation, decomposition of time series and their characteristics, use of dummy variables in econometric modeling, econometric and statistical verification of model. In the practical part empirical analysis and evaluation of the results are going to be performed - firstly, decomposition of time series and proper seasonal adjustment.,then test of time series for unit root and subsequently differentiation for detrending. As a hypothesis, some of the factors described in the theoretical part will be selected:: citizens' level of education, minimum wage, global crisis of 2008, intervention of CNB, and GDP (based on Okun's law). Regression of unemployment rate on individual factors will be run, the model also will be gradually expanded by other variables and will be tested for the unit root and heteroskedasticity. Estimates using the Generalized Least Squares method will be compared to the OLS estimates. Thesis will be summarized by conclusion of the empirical analysis.
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Impact of Information Technologies on Unemployment: Spatial Analysis
Záhlava, Josef ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Macek, Petr (referee)
This thesis analyses the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on unemployment in international context. The thesis summarizes the knowledge and research outcomes on the impact of ICT on the economy both on micro and macroeconomic level and deducts implications for unemployment. Moreover, the thesis assesses the impact of international economic integration on unemployment and labour market situation. Using ICT is beneficial for eco- nomic growth and labour productivity. This leads to decrease in unemploy- ment rate. The impact of ICT differs both among sectors of the economy and groups of workers by qualification. The unemployment rate is internationally autocorrelated due to international economic integration. In close countries it follows similar development. Based on empirical research of panel data of ele- ven european countries for years 1996 to 2007, international autocorrelation in unemployment rate and beneficial impact of ICT in lowering unemployment rate were confirmed. However, due to violation of necessary assumption of nor- mality, the results of MLE analysis need not be valid. This can be tackled by employing different estimation method, perhaps 2SLS. 1
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Econometric analysis of marihuana seizures in selected states of the world
Zharikov, Oleksandr ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Čížek, Ondřej (referee)
Nowadays the drug question is one of the most debatable problems in our society. Marijuana is the most common type of illegal drugs. The volume of confiscated marijuana is one of the most important indicators, which helps to determine the real situation on the black market of marijuana. This bachelor's thesis concerns with the econometric analysis of the most important factors influencing the volume of marijuana seizures. At the beginning, it presents the methodology later applied to the data set and variables relevant the problem. The next section is an application part where there are introduced econometric models which help to discover and quantify influences of the variables. The last part is conclusion where the results of analysis are evaluated and interpreted.
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Analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic
Holakovská, Adéla ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (referee)
This work is focused on econometric analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic, there is also reported an analysis of inflation in Austria and continuity of both countries to the dominant German economy. The inflation with its forms and possibilities of measuring is described in the first part of this work. There is also mentioned the influence of Czech national bank on the inflation. Next, there is shown the impact of foreign exchange rates and inflation. Consequently there are described characteristics of time series, which are important from viewpoint of construction of econometric models. Next, there is described theory of econometrics analysis, focused on ordinary least squares method and method of instrumental variables. The empirical part contains econometric analysis of inflation itself, using models described in theoretical part. Moreover, this work includes other models, coming out of economic hypothesis. Firstly, it analyses inflation in Germany as the reference country. Secondly, further analysis performs inflation in the Czech Republic and Austria. Finally, an analysis based on ERPT (exchange rate pass-through) models is given. In conclusion, the results are well summarized and compared.
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Faktory ovlivňující poptávku po osobních automobilech v ČR
ČURILLOVÁ, Michaela
The bachelor thesis investigates factors which influence the demand for passenger cars in the Czech Republic. The theoretical part of this work is focused on basic terms and determinants which are important for the demand. Further it describes particular statistical methods, which are used for the analysis. The practical part contains the introduction to the automotive industry and the description of specific attributes of the demand for passenger cars. This part analyses factors which may have an effect on the demand for passenger cars in the Czech Republic. The main factors and the dependence are explained by applying econometric methods. Analyzing reveals these important factors: number of registrations of passenger cars, consumer prices of new and used passenger cars, consumer prices of fuel, population and income.The conclusion contains the summary of impacts on the specific demand.
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